0536-1036 Известия высших учебных заведений. Лесной журнал Lesnoy Zhurnal (Russian Forestry Journal) ФГАОУ ВО «Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова» 10.37482/0536-1036-2026-4-9-19 https://journals.narfu.ru/index.php/fj/article/view/2684 ЛЕСНОЕ ХОЗЯЙСТВО FORESTRY Влияние физических и экологических факторов на изменчивость прогнозируемой урожайности на сосновых плантациях Шри-Ланки Influence of Physical and Environmental Factors on Yield Prediction Variability in Sri Lankan Pinus Plantations Кумарасекара Г.А. Кумарасекара Г.А. Kumarasekara Gihan Amila kumara@stc.ac.lk 0009-0009-7045-4685 Мутумала Ч. Мутумала Ч. Muthumala Chaminda ck_muthumala@yahoo.com 0000-0001-9358-7717 Амарасинге Т.Д. Амарасинге Т.Д. Amarasinghe Tharindu Dilan amarasinghe@uot.edu.jp 0000-0001-6073-8275 Марикар Ф. Марикар Ф. Marikar Faiz faiz@kdu.ac.lk 0000-0003-4579-7263 Отдел исследований, развития и обучения, Государственная лесопромышленная корпорация (г. Баттарамулла, Шри-Ланка) Research Development and Training Division, State Timber Corporation (Battaramulla, Sri Lanka) Кафедра естественных наук и экологии Высшей школы инновационных исследований Токийского университета (г. Токио, Япония) Department of Natural Environmental Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan) Университет обороны имени генерала сэра Джона Котелавалы (г. Ратмалана, Шри-Ланка) General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University (Ratmalana, Sri Lanka) 10 08 2026 2026 4 9 19 14 12 2025 27 02 2026 26 02 2026 © Кумарасекара Г.А., Мутумала Ч., Амарасинге Т.Д., Марикар Ф., 2026 2026 Кумарасекара Г.А., Мутумала Ч., Амарасинге Т.Д., Марикар Ф. Kumarasekara G.A., Muthumala Ch., Amarasinghe T.D., Marikar F. CC BY 4.0 https://journals.narfu.ru/index.php/fj/article/view/2684

Изучено влияние уклона местности и отнесенности территории к агроэкологическому региону на рост и объем древесины сосновых плантаций во влажных и переходных зонах Шри-Ланки. Департамент лесного хозяйства Шри-Ланки ежегодно выделяет Государственной лесопромышленной корпорации около 1000 га сосновых плантаций для проведения рубок ухода и сплошных рубок. На основе данных лесной таксации корпорация рассчитывает выход древесины. В связи со значительными расхождениями между расчетными и фактическими объемами древесины был проведен анализ физических и экологических факторов, влияющих на рост насаждений. Исследование охватило 48 участков на 11 плантациях в 3 районах Шри-Ланки: Нувара-Элия, Матара и Ратнапура, – выбранных на основе региональной репрезентативности. Полученные данные включали фактические объемы заготовленной древесины в 2020 и 2021 гг., результаты измерений угла склона местности, сведения о количестве живых деревьев и классификацию агроэкологических регионов. Методом статистического анализа была установлена корреляция между уклоном, отнесенностью территории к агроэкологическому региону и учтенным объемом древесины. Отмечена преимущественно отрицательная корреляция уклона склона и выхода древесины, причем выход древесины постепенно уменьшался по мере перехода от горных районов к равнинным. Более крутые склоны всегда обусловливали снижение выхода древесины, в то время как агроклиматическая зона оказывала существенное влияние на общую продуктивность насаждений на всех исследованных участках. Полученные данные подчеркивают важность топографических и экологических факторов в моделях прогнозирования выхода древесины. Более полный учет этих факторов позволит сократить погрешности в расчетах, обеспечит более точное планирование лесозаготовок и будет способствовать долгосрочному рациональному лесопользованию в Шри-Ланке.

This study investigates the influence of slope and agro-ecological regions on the growth and timber volume of Pinus plantations in the wet and intermediate zones of Sri Lanka. Annually, the Forest Department of Sri Lanka releases approximately 1,000 hectares of Pinus plantations for thinning and clear felling to the State Timber Corporation, which estimates timber yield using enumeration data. Notable discrepancies between estimated and actual timber volumes prompted a detailed analysis of the physical and environmental factors affecting plantation growth. The study covered 48 coupes from 11 plantations across three districts Nuwara Eliya, Matara, and Ratnapura selected based on regional representation. Data collected included actual timber volumes extracted in 2020 and 2021, slope measurements, standing tree counts, and agro-ecological region classifications. Statistical analysis focused on identifying correlations between slope, agro-ecological regions, and recorded timber volume. Results indicated a predominantly negative correlation between slope and timber volume, with volumes decreasing progressively from up-country to low-country regions. Steeper slopes were consistently associated with reduced timber yields, while agro-ecological zone significantly influenced overall plantation productivity across all sampled sites. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating topographical and ecological factors into timber yield forecasting models. Improved integration of such variables would reduce estimation discrepancies, support more accurate harvest planning, and contribute to the long-term sustainable management of forest plantation resources across Sri Lanka.

 Ключевые слова сосна Pinus рост сосны влияние склонов на прирост древесины агроэкологические регионы объем древесины плантации Шри-Ланки Keywords pine Pinus Pinus growth slope impact on wood increment agro-ecological regions timber volume Sri Lankan plantations Ashton P.M.S., Gamage S., Gunatilleke I.A.U.N., Gunatilleke C.V.S. Restoration of a Sri Lankan Rainforest: Using Caribbean Pine Pinus caribaea as a Nurse for Establishing Late-Successional Tree Species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 1997, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 915–925. https://doi.org/10.2307/2405282 D’Amato A.W., Jokela E.J., O’Hara K.L., Long J.N. Silviculture in the United States: An Amazing Period of Change over the Past 30 Years. Journal of Forestry, 2018, vol. 116, iss. 1, pp. 55–67. https://doi.org/10.5849/JOF-2016-035 Dilrukshi R.P.W.A., Hettiarachchi M.H.S.M., Sriskumar S., Chandrasekara E.D.C.T., Dissanayake D.M.M.R., Wijerathna R.M.S. Precision Agricultural Technologies for Enhancing Crop Productivity: A Way Forward to Sri Lankan Agriculture. Sri Lanka Journal of Food and Agriculture, 2021, vol. 7, iss. 2, pp. 23–42. https://doi.org/10.4038/sljfa.v7i2.98 Eshetu M., Wogi L., Demissie N. Soil Fertility Assessment and Mapping under Different Land Use Types Along Toposequence at Danka Watershed in Dinsho Districts of Bale Highland Oromia, Southeastern Ethiopia. International Journal of Plant & Soil Science, 2024, vol. 36, iss. 5, pp. 847–872. https://doi.org/10.9734/IJPSS/2024/v36i54582 Hearath H.M.B.S., Pushpakumara D.K.N.G., Hewson M., Wickramagamage P. A Geospatial and Socio-Economic Assessment of Tree Density in Home Gardens as Trees Outside Forests Sources in Agro-Ecological Regions: Upper Mahaweli Catchment, Sri Lanka. Tropical Agricultural Research, 2023, vol. 34, iss. 3, pp. 212–226. https://doi.org/10.4038/tar.v34i3.8647 Jayawardhane J., Gunaratne A.M.T.A. Restoration Success Evaluation of a Thinned and Enriched Pine Plantation in Sri Lanka. Journal of Tropical Forest Science, 2020, vol. 32(4), pp. 402–413. https://doi.org/10.26525/jtfs2020.32.4.402 Karunaratne A.S., Wimalasiri E.M., Piyathilake U., Gunatilake S.K., Muttil N., Rathnayake U. Modelling Potential Soil Erosion and Sediment Delivery Risk in Plantations of Sri Lanka. Soil Systems, 2022, vol. 6, iss. 4, art. 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/soilsystems6040097 Kim J., Ahn J., Kang J. Analysis of Wildfire Spread and Development of Efficient Adaptation Plan for Natural Recreation Forests: A Case Study of Gangwon-Do, South Korea. South Korea, 2023. 44 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4581281 Liu J. Progress in Research on the Effects of Environmental Factors on Natural Forest Regeneration. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2025, vol. 8, art. 1525461. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2025.1525461 Malaviarachchi M.A., Karunathilake W.A., Perera R.A., Nijamudeen M.S. Threats and Related Research Towards Adaptation of Other Field Crops to Climate Change in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka. Proceedings of the Workshop on Present Status of Research Activities on Climate Change Adaptations. Ed. by B. Marambe. Colombo, Sri Lanka, Council for Agricultural Research Policy, 2019, pp. 21–29. Muthumala C.K., De Silva S., Alwis P.L.A.G., Arunakumara I.K.K.U., Marikar F.M.M.T. Assessment of Quality Parameters of Finger-Jointed Timber Products: A Review. Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov. Series II, 2025, vol. 18(67), pp. 65–82. https://doi.org/10.31926/but.fwiafe.2025.18.67.1.5 Nandasena W.D.K.V., Brabyn L., Serrao-Neumann S. Monitoring Invasive Pines Using Remote Sensing: A Case Study from Sri Lanka. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2023, vol. 195, art. 347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-10919-1 Rishmawi K., Huang C., Zhan X. Monitoring Key Forest Structure Attributes Across the Conterminous United States by Integrating GEDI LiDAR Measurements and VIIRS Data. Remote Sensing, 2021, vol. 13(3), art. 442. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030442 Smith N.J.Р., Williams J.T., Plucknett D.L., Talbot J.P. Tropical Forests and Their Crops. Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 2018. 584 p. Sri Lanka Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP). Battaramulla, Sri Lanka, Forestry Planning Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, Lands & Forestry, 1995. Subasinghe S.M.C.U.P., Haripriya A.M.R. Prediction of Stem Biomass of Pinus caribaea Growing in the Low Country Wet Zone of Sri Lanka. Journal of Tropical Forestry and Environment, 2014, vol. 4, no. 1, pp 40–49. https://doi.org/10.31357/jtfe.v4i1.1056 Zhang C., Zeng F., Zeng Z., Du H., Su L., Zhang L., et al. Impact of Selected Environmental Factors on Variation in Leaf and Branch Traits on Endangered Karst Woody Plants of Southwest China. Forests, 2022, vol. 13(7), art. 1080. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13071080 Zhang X., Ke S., Xu T., Qiao D. Review of China’s Forestry Industry over the Past 70 Years and an Outlook for the Future. International Forestry Review, 2020, vol. 22(2), pp. 269–282. https://doi.org/10.1505/146554820829403496 Zhang Y., Wang X.-P., Pan Y., Hu R., Chen N. Global Quantitative Synthesis of Effects of Biotic and Abiotic Factors on Stemflow Production in Woody Ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2021, vol. 30(8), pp. 1713–1723. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13322 Zhang Z., Du X., Wang F. Biological Activities of Procyanidins from the Bark of Pinus caribaea Morelet. Natural Product Research, 2009, vol. 23(8), pp. 696–703. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786410802242984 Ashton P.M.S., Gamage S., Gunatilleke I.A.U.N., Gunatilleke C.V.S. Restoration of a Sri Lankan Rainforest: Using Caribbean Pine Pinus caribaea as a Nurse for Establishing Late-Successional Tree Species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 1997, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 915–925. https://doi.org/10.2307/2405282 D’Amato A.W., Jokela E.J., O’Hara K.L., Long J.N. Silviculture in the United States: An Amazing Period of Change over the Past 30 Years. Journal of Forestry, 2018, vol. 116, iss. 1, pp. 55–67. https://doi.org/10.5849/JOF-2016-035 Dilrukshi R.P.W.A., Hettiarachchi M.H.S.M., Sriskumar S., Chandrasekara E.D.C.T., Dissanayake D.M.M.R., Wijerathna R.M.S. Precision Agricultural Technologies for Enhancing Crop Productivity: A Way Forward to Sri Lankan Agriculture. Sri Lanka Journal of Food and Agriculture, 2021, vol. 7, iss. 2, pp. 23–42. https://doi.org/10.4038/sljfa.v7i2.98 Eshetu M., Wogi L., Demissie N. Soil Fertility Assessment and Mapping under Different Land Use Types Along Toposequence at Danka Watershed in Dinsho Districts of Bale Highland Oromia, Southeastern Ethiopia. International Journal of Plant & Soil Science, 2024, vol. 36, iss. 5, pp. 847–872. https://doi.org/10.9734/IJPSS/2024/v36i54582 Hearath H.M.B.S., Pushpakumara D.K.N.G., Hewson M., Wickramagamage P. A Geospatial and Socio-Economic Assessment of Tree Density in Home Gardens as Trees Outside Forests Sources in Agro-Ecological Regions: Upper Mahaweli Catchment, Sri Lanka. Tropical Agricultural Research, 2023, vol. 34, iss. 3, pp. 212–226. https://doi.org/10.4038/tar.v34i3.8647 Jayawardhane J., Gunaratne A.M.T.A. Restoration Success Evaluation of a Thinned and Enriched Pine Plantation in Sri Lanka. Journal of Tropical Forest Science, 2020, vol. 32(4), pp. 402–413. https://doi.org/10.26525/jtfs2020.32.4.402 Karunaratne A.S., Wimalasiri E.M., Piyathilake U., Gunatilake S.K., Muttil N., Rathnayake U. Modelling Potential Soil Erosion and Sediment Delivery Risk in Plantations of Sri Lanka. Soil Systems, 2022, vol. 6, iss. 4, art. 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/soilsystems6040097 Kim J., Ahn J., Kang J. Analysis of Wildfire Spread and Development of Efficient Adaptation Plan for Natural Recreation Forests: A Case Study of Gangwon-Do, South Korea. South Korea, 2023. 44 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4581281 Liu J. Progress in Research on the Effects of Environmental Factors on Natural Forest Regeneration. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2025, vol. 8, art. 1525461. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2025.1525461 Malaviarachchi M.A., Karunathilake W.A., Perera R.A., Nijamudeen M.S. Threats and Related Research Towards Adaptation of Other Field Crops to Climate Change in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka. Proceedings of the Workshop on Present Status of Research Activities on Climate Change Adaptations. Ed. by B. Marambe. Colombo, Sri Lanka, Council for Agricultural Research Policy, 2019, pp. 21–29. Muthumala C.K., De Silva S., Alwis P.L.A.G., Arunakumara I.K.K.U., Marikar F.M.M.T. Assessment of Quality Parameters of Finger-Jointed Timber Products: A Review. Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov. Series II, 2025, vol. 18(67), pp. 65–82. https://doi.org/10.31926/but.fwiafe.2025.18.67.1.5 Nandasena W.D.K.V., Brabyn L., Serrao-Neumann S. Monitoring Invasive Pines Using Remote Sensing: A Case Study from Sri Lanka. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2023, vol. 195, art. 347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-10919-1 Rishmawi K., Huang C., Zhan X. Monitoring Key Forest Structure Attributes Across the Conterminous United States by Integrating GEDI LiDAR Measurements and VIIRS Data. Remote Sensing, 2021, vol. 13(3), art. 442. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030442 Smith N.J.Р., Williams J.T., Plucknett D.L., Talbot J.P. Tropical Forests and Their Crops. Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 2018. 584 p. Sri Lanka Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP). Battaramulla, Sri Lanka, Forestry Planning Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, Lands & Forestry, 1995. Subasinghe S.M.C.U.P., Haripriya A.M.R. Prediction of Stem Biomass of Pinus caribaea Growing in the Low Country Wet Zone of Sri Lanka. Journal of Tropical Forestry and Environment, 2014, vol. 4, no. 1, pp 40–49. https://doi.org/10.31357/jtfe.v4i1.1056 Zhang C., Zeng F., Zeng Z., Du H., Su L., Zhang L., et al. Impact of Selected Environmental Factors on Variation in Leaf and Branch Traits on Endangered Karst Woody Plants of Southwest China. Forests, 2022, vol. 13(7), art. 1080. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13071080 Zhang X., Ke S., Xu T., Qiao D. Review of China’s Forestry Industry over the Past 70 Years and an Outlook for the Future. International Forestry Review, 2020, vol. 22(2), pp. 269–282. https://doi.org/10.1505/146554820829403496 Zhang Y., Wang X.-P., Pan Y., Hu R., Chen N. Global Quantitative Synthesis of Effects of Biotic and Abiotic Factors on Stemflow Production in Woody Ecosystems. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2021, vol. 30(8), pp. 1713–1723. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13322 Zhang Z., Du X., Wang F. Biological Activities of Procyanidins from the Bark of Pinus caribaea Morelet. Natural Product Research, 2009, vol. 23(8), pp. 696–703. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786410802242984