Dew Point as a Basis for the Operational Indicator of Forest Fire Danger
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37482/0536-1036-2024-1-114-125Keywords:
forest fires, the Nesterov index, dew-point deficit, fire danger rating scale, FFDI, forest fire danger, the Irkutsk RegionAbstract
The problem of preventing forest fires and timely mobilization of extinguishing agents is particularly acute in the Irkutsk Region, where forests cover considerable areas. The use of classical indices for assessing forest fire danger does not always provide accurate results in the operational planning of fire extinguishing measures. The aim of this study is to develop a simple and effective indicator for predicting the occurrence of forest fires. The forestries of the Irkutsk Region, which were most severely affected by forest fires, were chosen as the object of this study. In the course of the study, it has been necessary to solve a number of problems, such as assessing the adequacy of the existing methods, developing a more accurate and simple indicator for local conditions, establishing the algorithm for calculating and the scale for assessing the fire danger class. As the initial data, the publicly available data from the meteorological observations archives and the data from the Remote Monitoring Information System of the Federal Forestry Agency (ISDM-Rosleskhoz) have been used. The methods of cluster analysis and correlation and regression analysis have been applied. The dependence of the number of forest fires on weather conditions in sparsely populated areas has been revealed. The frequency of the cycles of the number and area of forest fires is 3–4 years. Various options for calculating the accumulated dewpoint deficit for predicting the number and area of forest fires have been considered. The closest correlation has been found for the indicator calculated over 10 days. Foreign experience in assessing fire danger according to weather conditions having been analyzed, an assumption has been made about the potential partial use of the Australian FFDI index. In the calculations, a satisfactory result has not been achieved. Therefore, it has been proposed to use the accumulated dew-point deficit over 10 days as an indicator of forest fire danger. The number of forest fires is described through the quadratic dependence on this indicator. A scale for assessing fire danger, adapted to the scale based on the Nesterov index, has been developed. For practical use, the calculation algorithm in MS Office Excel has been described, which makes it possible to apply the proposed indicator in the forestries of the Irkutsk Region. The indicator based on the accumulated dew-point deficit over 10 days will make it possible to check the state of forest fire danger according to weather conditions in accordance with the developed scale using the described algorithm and the macro for calculation in MS Excel.
Downloads
References
Болданова Е.В. Методические подходы к предсказанию возникновения лесных пожаров на примере Иркутской области // Евроазиатское сотрудничество: сб. по материалам Междунар. науч.-практ. конф., Иркутск, 14–15 сент. 2017 г. Иркутск, 2017. С. 30–37. Boldanova E.V. Methodological Approaches to Predicting Forest Fires by the Example of the Irkutsk Region. Eurasian Cooperation: Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference (Irkutsk, September 14–15, 2017). Irkutsk, 2017, pp. 30–37. (In Russ.).
Болданова Е.В., Давыдова Г.В. Лесные пожары в России, Канаде, США: динамика, тенденции, факторы // Актуальные тенденции развития мировой экономики: сб. по материалам Междунар. науч.-практ. конф., Иркутск, 15–16 марта 2016 г.: в 2 ч. Ч. 2. Иркутск, 2016. С. 12–20. Boldanova E.V., Davydova G.V. Forest Fires in Russia, Canada, the United States: Dynamics, Trends, Factors. Actual Trends in the Development of the World Economy: Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference (Irkutsk, March 15–16, 2016): in 2 parts. Irkutsk, 2016, part 2, pp. 12–20. (In Russ.).
Болданова Е.В., Давыдова Г.В. Влияние антропогенной нагрузки на возгорание лесов Иркутской области // Активизация интеллектуального и ресурсного потенциала регионов: новые вызовы для менеджмента компаний: сб. по материалам 2-й Всерос. конф., Иркутск, 19–20 мая 2016 г.: в 2 ч. Ч. 2. Иркутск, 2016. С. 55–59. Boldanova E.V., Davydova G.V. Impact of Anthropogenic Load on Forest Fire of the Irkutsk Region. Activation of Intellectual and Resource Potential of Regions: New Challenges for Company Management: Materials of the 2nd All-Russian Conference: in 2 parts. Irkutsk, 2016, part 2, pp. 55–59. (In Russ.).
Болданова Е.В., Давыдова Г.В. Методические подходы к прогнозированию лесных пожаров Иркутской области // Активизация интеллектуального и ресурсного потенциала регионов: новые вызовы для менеджмента компаний: сб. по материалам 3-й Всерос. конф., Иркутск, 18 мая 2017 г. / науч. ред. С.В. Чупрова, Н.Н. Даниленко. Иркутск, 2017. С. 45–51. Boldanova E.V., Davydova G.V. Methodological Approaches to Forecasting Forest Fires in Irkutsk Oblast. Activation of Intellectual and Resource Potential of Regions: New Challenges for Company Management: Materials of the 3rd All-Russian Research Conference. In S.V. Chuprov, N.N. Danilenko (eds.). Irkutsk, 2017, pp. 45–51. (In Russ.).
Давыдова Г.В., Болданова Е.В. Исследование динамики количества и площадей лесных пожаров в Иркутской области // Global and Regional Research. 2019. Т. 1, № 3. С. 241–246. Davydova G.V., Boldanova E.V. Study of the Dynamics of the Number and Area of Forest Fires in the Irkutsk Region. Global and Regional Research, 2019, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 241–246. (In Russ.).
Долгов А.А., Сумина Е.Н., Цомаева Д.С. Методология оценки лесопожарных рисков // Роль мелиорации и водного хозяйства в реализации национальных проектов: материалы науч.-практ. конф., Москва, 10–14 апр. 2008 г. М.: Моск. гос. ун-т природообустройства, 2008. Ч. 1. С. 97–103. Dolgov A.A. Sumina E.N., Tsomaeva D.S. Methodology for Assessing Forest Fire Risks. The Role of Land Reclamation and Water Management in the Implementation of National Projects: Materials of the Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, Moscow State University of Environmental Engineering, 2008, part 1, pp. 97–103. (In Russ.).
Иванова Д.А. К вопросу об экологических проблемах лесов Байкальского региона: экономический аспект // Изв. БГУ. 2019. Т. 29, № 1. С. 24–31. Ivanova D.A. On the Issue of Ecological Problems of the Baikal Region Forests: an Economic Aspect. Isvestiya Baikal’skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Bulletin of Baikal State University, 2019, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 24–31. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(1).24-31
Курбатский Н.П. Проблема лесных пожаров // Возникновение лесных пожаров. М.: Наука, 1964. С. 5–60. Kurbatsky N.P. The Problem of Forest Fires. The Occurrence of Forest Fires. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1964, pp. 5–60. (In Russ.).
Мелехов И.С. Лесоведение. М.: Лесн. пром-сть, 1980. 408 с. Melekhov I.S. Forest Science. Moscow, Lesnaya promyshlennost’ Publ., 1980. 408 p. (In Russ.).
Методические указания по прогнозированию пожарной опасности в лесах по условиям погоды / сост. А.Л. Кац, В.А. Гусев, Т.А. Шабунина; Гидрометеорол. науч.-исслед. центр СССР. М.: Гидрометеоиздат. Моск. отд-ние, 1975. 16 с. Kats A.L., Gusev V.L., Shabunina T.A. Methodical Instructions on Forecasting of Fire Danger in the Woods under Weather Conditions. Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1975. 16 p. (In Russ.).
Нестеров В.Г. Горимость леса и методы ее определения. М.: Гослесбумиздат, 1949. 76 с. Nesterov V.G. Combustibility of the Forest and Methods for its Determination. Moscow, Goslesbumizdat Publ., 1949. 76 p. (In Russ.).
Определение природной пожарной опасности в лесу: метод. рекомендации / ЛенНИИЛХ; сост. С.М. Вонский и др. Л.: ЛенНИИЛХ, 1981. 52 c. Vonsky S.N., Zhdanko V.A., Korbut V.I. Estimating the Natural Fire Threat in a Forest. Leningrad, LenNIILH Publ., 1981. 52 p. (In Russ.).
Русецкая Г.Д., Горбунова О.И. Реализация принципов устойчивого управления древесными ресурсами в лесах Иркутской области // Изв. БГУ. 2021. Т. 31, № 2. С. 248–261. Rusetskaya G.D., Gorbunova O.I. Implementation of Sustainable Lumber Management Principles in Irkutsk Region. Isvestiya Baikal’skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Bulletin of Baikal State University, 2021, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 248–261. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2021.31(2).248-261
Софронов М.А., Гольдаммер И.Г., Волокитина А.В., Софронова Т.М. Пожарная опасность в природных условиях. Красноярск: Ин-т леса им. В.Н. Сукачёва СО РАН, 2005. 322 с. Sofronov M.A., Goldammer I.A., Volokitina A.V., Sofronova T.M. Fire Danger in Natural Conditions. Krasnoyarsk, Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS Publ., 2005. 322 p. (In Russ.).
Софронова Т.М., Волокитина А.В., Софронов М.А. Совершенствование оценки пожарной опасности по условиям погоды в горных лесах Южного Прибайкалья. Красноярск: Ин-т леса СО РАН, Краснояр. пед. ун-т, 2007. 236 с. Sofronova T.M., Volokitina A.V., Sofronov M.A. Improvement of Fire Danger Rating According to Weather Conditions in Mountain Forests of the South Baikal Lake Basin. Krasnoyarsk, Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS Publ., Krasnoyarsk Stated Pedagogical University named after V.P. Astafiev Publ., 2007. 236 p. (In Russ.).
Софронова Т.М., Волокитина А.В., Софронов М.А. Оценка пожарной опасности по условиям погоды в горных лесах Южного Прибайкалья // География и природ. ресурсы. 2008. № 2. С. 74–80. Sofronova T.M., Volokitina A.V., Sofronov M.A. Assessing the Fire Hazard from Weather Conditions in Mountain Forests of the Southern Baikal Region. Geography and Natural Resources, 2008, no. 2, pp. 74–80. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gnr.2008.06.009
Суходолов А.П., Сорокина П.Г., Лебедева А.В. Математическая модель борьбы с лесными пожарами в Восточной Сибири (на примере Иркутской области): вычислительные эксперименты в среде Julia // Изв. БГУ. 2019. Т. 29, № 3. С. 349–358. Sukhodolov A.P., Sorokina P.G., Lebedeva A.V. Mathematical Model of Fight against Forest Fires in Terms of Irkutsk Oblast: Computational Experiments in Terms of the Julia Language. Isvestiya Baikal’skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Bulletin of Baikal State University, 2019, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 349–358. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(3).349-358
Телицын Г.П. Логарифмический показатель пожарной опасности для леса // Лесн. хоз-во. 1970. № 11. С. 58–59. Telitsyn G.P. A Logarithmic Indicator of Forest Fire Danger. Forestry, 1970, no. 11, pp. 58–59. (In Russ.). 19. Castro R., Chuvieco E. Modeling Forest Fire Danger from Geographic Information Systems. Geocarto International, 1998, vol. 13, iss. 1, pp. 15–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049809354624
Chuvieco E., Salas J. Mapping the Spatial Distribution of Forest Fire Danger Using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 1996, vol. 10, iss. 3, pp. 333–345. https://doi.org/10.1080/02693799608902082
Cohen J.D., Deeming J.E. The National Fire-Danger Rating System: Basic Equations: Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-82. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Berkeley, CA: Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1985. 16 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/PSW-GTR-82
Dowdy A.J., Mills G.A., Finkele K., de Groot W. Australian Fire Weather as Represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index: Technical Report 10. Australia, Melbourne, The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2009. 84 p.
Dowdy A.J., Mills G.A., Finkele K., de Groot W. Index Sensitivity Analysis Applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index. Meteorological Applications, 2010, vol. 17, iss. 3, pp. 298–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.170
Sanabria L.A., Qin X., Li J., Cechet R.P., Lucas C. Spatial Interpolation of McArthur's Forest Fire Danger Index across Australia: Observational Study. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013, vol. 50, pp. 37–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.08.012
Sharples J.J., McRae R.H.D., Weber R.O., Gill A.M. A Simple Index for Assessing Fire Danger Rating. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009, vol. 24, iss. 6, pp. 764–774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.004
Turner J.A., Lawson B.D. Weather in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: A User Guide to National Standards and Practices. Canadian Forest Service Information Report BC-X-177, 1978. 40 p.
Wotton B.M. Interpreting and Using Outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in Research Applications. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 2009, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 107–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-007-0084-2
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Е.В. Болданова (Автор)
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.