Modeling Forest Fire Development Taking into Account Spot Fires
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37482/0536-1036-2025-5-55-67Keywords:
spot fires, fire hazard monitoring, mathematical modeling, forest fire forecasting, socio-economic risks, environmental risks, convection, convective turbulenceAbstract
Forest fires annually destroy millions of hectares of forest, damaging ecosystems and affecting the state of the surface and boundary layers of the air, thereby causing significant environmental risks. Thus, the forest fires of 2023, covering an area of 28.6 mln ha, caused the death of almost 0.71 % of the forests on the Earth’s surface. In this regard, forecasting the parameters of the development of intense forest fires is an urgent task. Modern mathematical models describing the development of forest fires do not take into account the role of the convective factor. The inability to take thermal convection into account can lead to a significant distortion of the modeled parameters of the process, preventing effective protection of the population and economic facilities from fire. The aim of the study has been to discuss the possibilities of refining the equations of mathematical models of forest fire development in order to develop measures to reduce socio-economic risks for the population. The works of P.M. Matveev, N.P. Kurbatskij, S.V. Puzach, D.L. Lajkhtman and A.S. Gavrilov have been used. The methods used by the authors include literary, analytical-statistical, analytical-graphical, and mathematical modeling methods. The introduction of the turbulence parameter into the equation of the predictive model has been justified. The necessity of supplementing the 1-layer model with the equations of the 2nd layer characterizing the development of a fire in an unsteady surface layer has been shown. The statistical convergence of the calculation results of the model containing the refinement has been proven in comparison with the classical equation of the R. Rothermel model. The obtained refined model equations will make it possible to effectively calculate the parameters of spot and intense crown fires within forest ecosystems. The introduction of the turbulence coefficient into the predictive equation has made it possible to identify the largest deviations in the calculated heights of the ellipse and the expected shape of fire propagation. The refined model equation will make it possible to significantly adjust the dimensions of this segment of the ellipse based on the consideration of developing vertical convective flows that contribute to the transformation of a ground forest fire into an intense crown one. Further scientific research in this area will help develop effective measures to reduce the socio-economic risks associated with forest fires.
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