The Problem of Uncertainty in Social Sciences (Exemplified by Economics and Sociology)

Abstract

A characteristic feature of the modern world is the speed of the changes taking place. This increases the likelihood of random, unexpected events, which makes people’s lives less predictable and raises the issue of human adaptation to accelerated development. The article focuses on the philosophical analysis of the category of uncertainty in the context of existence of humans and the world. Ontological and epistemological ways of understanding uncertainty, which have both subjective and objective dimensions, are presented. The ontological status of uncertainty is determined by the characteristics of the object. Epistemological uncertainty is associated with the imperfection of human knowledge or the unknowability of the object of knowledge. The paper demonstrates a conceptual link between uncertainty and risk. It is argued that in a dynamically changing world, all the risks cannot be assessed, which highlights the importance of understanding the nature of uncertainty and identifying its parameters and attributes. Further, the theoretical approaches to the study of uncertainty in economics and sociology are analysed. In economics, uncertainty is viewed through the prism of probability theory (J.M. Keynes, F.H. Knight), expected utility hypothesis (J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern) and prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky). According to the scientists’ findings, economic processes can be assessed using probabilistic methods. However, some events cannot be predicted in a scientific way due to factors that are impossible to foresee. In addition, people’s decisions are often irrational, which makes it more difficult to predict their behaviour. In sociology, the concept of uncertainty is considered in connection with the category of risk (U. Beck, N. Luhmann, A. Giddens, M. Douglas). The researchers believe that risks are class-based and institutional in nature and are associated with making decisions aimed at preventing them. The author concludes that solving the problem of risk management can help reduce uncertainty in the modern world.